Dota 2's New Loot Box Shows You The Odds Of Getting Rare Items
Valve's taken a lot of heat the past few months for the way it handles its loot boxes in Dota 2. The Netherlands classified its loot boxes as gambling, and when Valve tried a workaround, most people saw it for what it was: a thinly veiled attempt to comply with the law that didn't really address the core issue.
Yesterday, Valve introduced a new kind of loot box, the Treasure of the Carmine Cascade, to Dota 2, and this one comes with a twist. Now you can see the odds of obtaining a rare, very rare, or extremely rare drop from the crates, which feature escalating -- i.e., better -- odds the more you open.
We've embedded a box opening video from YouTuber DotaCinema below showing the interface for the Carmine Cascade boxes; he describes the new system starting at about 3:30. The odds for each of the three higher quality of rares start at 1:2000, 1:10000, and 1:20000, and improve dramatically for each box opened. You can see the full charts in the video.
Overall, DotaCinema's odds of getting the good stuff still aren't that great. For the seven boxes he opens, his cumulative chance of getting a rare drop is about 11.8%. For a very rare, it's 5.7%, and for an extremely rare, it's just over 2.0%. The animation for opening each box, with its elimination of items one by one -- but always leaving a rarer item until the end to make you think you "just missed" -- also seems the tiniest bit manipulative. Still, it's nice to see Valve being honest with its customers and at least providing the kind of information casinos and lotteries have had to do for a while.
Related Articles
About the Author

Jason Winter is a veteran gaming journalist, he brings a wide range of experience to MMOBomb, including two years with Beckett Media where he served as the editor of the leading gaming magazine Massive Online Gamer. He has also written professionally for several gaming websites.
Read Next
Dreadnought Developer Six Foot Lays Off 45 Employees, Four Days After Launch
While the news of Dreadnought's launch may have been good news for gamers, it wasn't good news for many employees at developer Six Foot.
By Jason Winter - 4 years agoYou May Enjoy
💣 Feature | Top 10 MMORPGs With Player Housing In 2023
Buy a house and decorate until your heart is content.
By Troy Blackburn - 1 day agoDigital Extremes Celebrates 10 Years Of Warframe With Rewards And Activations
The team is also preparing for the return of TennoCon as an in-person event.
By QuintLyn Bowers - 4 days agoGDC 2023: Nexon Drops New Trailer For Upcoming Free-To-Play Tactical Shooter Veiled Experts, Final Beta Soon
The final beta test runs from March 30 to April 6. Registration available now.
By Matthew D'Onofrio - 6 days agoNew Sci-Fi Shooter SYNCED Launches On PC This Summer, Nanos And All
Players will work in teams of three to defeat Nanos and each other in a world devastated by tech.
By Matthew D'Onofrio - 2 days agoOverwatch 2 Pachimari Event Now Live Featuring Free Cosmetics And New Arcade Mode
Play Catch-A-Mari on the event-themed Hanamura from now until April 4.
By Matthew D'Onofrio - 4 days agoEarn The Things You Need To Successfully Navigate Menzoberranzan in Neverwinter’s Latest Battle Pass
The Protecter’s Enclave Vaults open once again.
By QuintLyn Bowers - 5 days ago
Discussion (2)